NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a "very strong" event this fall and winter. Headlines are calling it a super El Niño. I don't read forecasts to predict the weather. I read them to decide what a trades business should have ready before the phones change. Here is what the record says, and what I'd do about it in Tulsa.
What NOAA Actually Said
"Super El Niño" is a media label. NOAA's September 10 discussion uses "very strong" and puts the chance above 90% for fall and winter 2026-27. It also gives a 75% chance that October through December will be a historic event, stronger than any El Niño on record back to 1950. The next update is October 8, so the odds may have moved by the time you read this.
What Strong El Niños Have Meant for Oklahoma
Oklahoma State Climatologist Gary McManus looked at October through April in strong and very strong El Niño years since 1950. Much of Oklahoma landed in the wettest third of years roughly 60 to 80 percent of the time, and in the coolest third roughly 60 to 70 percent of the time. His own summary: "El Niño loads the dice, but Mother Nature still gets to roll 'em."
That is a tilt, not a schedule. He also cautions that the effects take time to establish across the Southern Plains, so any shift should show up gradually, not on a date.
Why a Trades Business Should Care Now
Wetter and cooler doesn't move every trade the same way. This is my read of the pattern, not a forecast:
- Heating trades. A cooler winter means more hours of furnace runtime, and the ads and follow-up need to be ready before the average first freeze. I wrote about starting furnace ads early.
- Exterior and water-related trades. I'd expect more drainage, foundation, gutter and leak questions in a wet season, and more schedule slips on paving, concrete and outdoor work. Weather already limits the season for some of these, as the asphalt paving piece shows.
- Trades that lean on dry weather. McManus notes the same outlook means less drought. Work that follows drought or fire risk may run softer, so plan for that instead of being surprised by it.
What I'd Do Before the Season Turns
- Get ad accounts running with history now. A campaign that has run for a few weeks usually pays less than one switched on the day the weather turns.
- Answer every call. Wet, cold weeks create urgent calls, and a homeowner who doesn't get an answer calls the next number. A missed-call text covers the gaps.
- Clean up your Business Profile. Check hours, service area and services, and post about what you handle in wet weather.
- Decide capacity in advance. Know who takes overflow and what your emergency hours are before the busy week, not during it.
- Set a check date. The October 8 update is a natural one. Adjust budgets on evidence, not headlines.
What I Wouldn't Do
I wouldn't run fear-based ads about a record winter. The forecast is odds, and a homeowner scared into calling you once is not the customer you want to keep. Everything on the list above helps in an ordinary winter too, which is the point. If the strong El Niño arrives, you're ready. If it fizzles, you've lost nothing.
If you want to see how the seasons stack up for your trade, the seasonal marketing calendar is a good place to start.